NFLMon, Sep 14 · 12:20 AM

Cowboys @ Giants

Pricing the Giants side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

43¢

Fair line

44.7¢

Edge

+1.7¢

Book by book

9 books · Giants to win

MyBookie.ag

46.3¢

DraftKings

45.7¢

Bovada

45.7¢

BetOnline.ag

44.7¢

LowVig.ag

44.7¢

BetRivers

44.1¢

BetMGM

42.6¢

BetUS

42.1¢

FanDuel

42.1¢

Consensus

44.7¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Giants · Cowboys @ Giants

Kalshi asks 43¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 44.7¢. Pick a position size:

Position

581 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$322 / −$250

Expected value per trade

+$1

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Giants is priced at 44.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 43¢ — a +1.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.