The same game has two prices. Trade the difference.
SportsParity devigs the sportsbook consensus into a true fair line and holds it against live Kalshi prices — the market disagreeing with itself, in cents, ranked, live.
The board
Full screener →| Matchup | Pick | Kalshi | Fair | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NFLChiefs @ Bills Jul 4 | Bills | 54¢ | 58.5¢ | +4.5¢ | +EV |
NFLCowboys @ Eagles Jul 4 | Eagles | 61¢ | 66.4¢ | +5.4¢ | Crossed |
NBALakers @ Mavericks Today 12:58 PM | Mavericks | 47¢ | 50.5¢ | +3.5¢ | +EV |
MLBAstros @ Rangers Today 3:58 PM | Astros | 55¢ | 57.8¢ | +2.8¢ | Watch |
NBACeltics @ Heat Today 10:58 AM | Celtics | 69¢ | 71.6¢ | +2.6¢ | Watch |
MLBYankees @ Red Sox Today 5:58 PM | Red Sox | 42¢ | 44.3¢ | +2.3¢ | Watch |
How the edge is built
Devig the books
Every major sportsbook moneyline is stripped of its margin. The median across books becomes the fair line — the market's honest probability, before the house cut.
Price the contract
Kalshi YES contracts pay $1 on a win, so a 54¢ ask is 54% implied. Both venues land in the same currency: cents of probability.
Rank the gaps
Fair line minus contract price is the edge. Wide positive gaps are +EV entries; when the venues cross, opposite positions lock a profit either way.
What an edge is worth
worked example · Bills · Chiefs @ BillsKalshi asks 54¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 58.5¢. Pick a position size:
Position
462 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$206 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$14
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Why the same game has two prices
Two venues, two crowds, two mechanisms — so their prices drift apart constantly. Parity is the exception, not the rule. That drift is the whole opportunity.
The sportsbook
- — Sets the line, bakes in a margin (the vig)
- — Moves with public money and risk limits
- — Both sides sum past 100% — the house edge
The prediction market
- — A live order book — traders set the price
- — Contracts pay $1 on a win, priced in cents
- — Slower to correct on thin or early markets
The Record
Receipts, not promisesEvery flagged edge is timestamped the moment it appears, then graded when the game settles — wins and losses, plus whether the price moved our way by tip-off. No tout site shows its receipts. This one will.
| Flagged pick | Detected | At close | Line value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants ML | 43¢ | 46¢ | +3.0¢ | Settling |
| Nationals ML | 49¢ | 52¢ | +3.0¢ | Settling |
| Yankees ML | 56¢ | 58¢ | +2.0¢ | Settling |
Sample shown · live graded record publishes as games settle · positive line value = the market moved toward our call
The old way vs. the terminal
| SportsParity | 8 browser tabs | Other tools | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Live devigged fair line | ✓ | — | some |
| Kalshi + sportsbooks in one view | ✓ | — | — |
| Crossed-market detection | ✓ | — | some |
| Ranked by edge, every minute | ✓ | — | some |
| Public graded track record | ✓ | — | — |
| Costs you nothing to watch | ✓ | ✓ | — |
Sharp traders don't predict games. They notice when two markets stop agreeing — and get there before the prices reconcile.
Sportsbooks and prediction markets price the same events with different crowds, fee structures, and speeds. Parity is the natural state; the moments it breaks are the opportunity. SportsParity exists to catch them.
Questions
- What is the fair line?
- The market consensus probability after the vig is removed — the price the books actually believe, before their margin. We take the median across books so one stale line can't skew it.
- What does “crossed” mean?
- When the venues disagree far enough that opposite positions at each lock in a profit regardless of the result. Rare, brief, and flagged the moment they appear.
- Is SportsParity a sportsbook?
- No. SportsParity never touches wagers or funds. It's the terminal, not the exchange — you act at the venue of your choice.
- Where does the data come from?
- Live sportsbook moneylines across every major US book and public Kalshi market data, refreshed continuously. Prices move fast — always verify at the venue.