The Record

Receipts, not promises.

Every edge we flag is timestamped when it appears, then graded against the closing line when the game settles. We show the losses too, because closing line value, not a cherry-picked win streak, is what proves an edge was ever real.

Record

18, 20

47% win rate

Avg closing line value

+6.6¢

the number that matters

Beat the close

71%

of flagged edges

Graded

38

graded picks

Why closing line value? When the price moves toward our entry by game time, it means the whole market eventually agreed the edge was there. Consistently beating the close is the single hardest thing to fake and the clearest sign an edge is real, not luck. A tout can hide a losing month. Nobody can fake beating the close over a sample.

Cumulative closing line value

Every flagged edge, compounding. Up and to the right is the whole story.

+250.00000000000003¢

Each step is one graded pick · a rising curve means the market kept moving toward our entries

The ledger

every pick, most recent first
DateMatchupPickFlaggedClosedCLVResult
Aug 28MLSSan Jose Earthquakes @ Houston DynamoSan Jose Earthquakes19¢19.1¢+0.1¢pending
Aug 28MLSFC Dallas @ St. Louis City SCSt. Louis City SC48¢43¢-5.0¢pending
Aug 28MLSCF Montreal @ Inter Miami CFCF Montreal13¢15.2¢+2.2¢loss
Aug 25MLSReal Salt Lake @ Colorado RapidsReal Salt Lake26¢25.6¢-0.4¢loss
Aug 19MLBYankees @ OriolesYankees37¢50.4¢+13.4¢win
Aug 17UFCMason Jones @ Marquel MederosMarquel Mederos28¢25.2¢-2.8¢win
Aug 17UFCLerryan Douglas @ Jamall EmmersJamall Emmers21¢24¢+3.0¢win
Aug 17MLBOrioles @ RaysRays55¢60.1¢+5.1¢loss
Aug 17MLBJays @ RaysJays41¢44.7¢+3.7¢win
Aug 16MLSPhiladelphia Union @ New York City FCPhiladelphia Union16¢40¢+24.0¢win
Aug 16UFCChris Padilla @ Nasrat HaqparastChris Padilla48¢52.5¢+4.5¢win
Aug 16UFCElise Reed @ Shanelle DyerElise Reed15¢13.7¢-1.3¢loss
Aug 16MLBNationals @ MetsNationals23¢39.8¢+16.8¢loss
Aug 15MLBOrioles @ RaysRays66¢58.8¢-7.2¢loss
Aug 15MLBSox @ PiratesPirates50¢49.8¢-0.2¢win
Aug 13UFCEduardo Henrique @ Charles JohnsonEduardo Henrique44¢48.5¢+4.5¢pending
Aug 11MLBGuardians @ TigersTigers52¢56.6¢+4.6¢win
Aug 11MLBBrewers @ PadresPadres45¢45.2¢+0.2¢win
Aug 10UFCDustin Stoltzfus @ Mansur Abdul-MalikDustin Stoltzfus16¢16.1¢+0.1¢pending
Aug 9UFCIan Garry @ Islam MakhachevIan Garry23¢25.7¢+2.7¢pending
Aug 9MLBTigers @ GiantsGiants1¢45.3¢+44.3¢win
Aug 8MLBMets @ PiratesPirates61¢52.2¢-8.8¢loss
Aug 8MLBReds @ NationalsNationals47¢44.3¢-2.7¢win
Aug 6MLBPirates @ BrewersPirates21¢46.8¢+25.8¢loss
Aug 6MLSInter Miami CF @ Nashville SCNashville SC42¢38.5¢-3.5¢win
Aug 6MLBNationals @ PhilliesNationals9¢25.6¢+16.6¢loss
Aug 5UFCGuilherme Pat @ Steven AsplundGuilherme Pat27¢28¢+1.0¢loss
Aug 4MLBMets @ GuardiansMets49¢48.9¢-0.1¢win
Aug 4MLBPirates @ BrewersPirates41¢42.6¢+1.6¢win
Aug 4MLBSox @ SoxSox47¢57.4¢+10.4¢win
Aug 3UFCBilly Quarantillo @ Carlos Diego FerreiraBilly Quarantillo37¢39¢+2.0¢loss
Aug 3MLBSox @ SoxSox47¢57.6¢+10.6¢win
Aug 2UFCYadier DelValle @ Darren ElkinsDarren Elkins13¢13.5¢+0.5¢pending
Aug 2MLBSox @ RaysRays18¢57.2¢+39.2¢loss
Aug 2MLBPhillies @ OriolesPhillies73¢57.1¢-15.9¢loss
Aug 1MLBMarlins @ MetsMets4¢54.7¢+50.7¢win
Jul 29MLBJays @ NationalsNationals42¢47.8¢+5.8¢loss
Jul 28MLBDiamondbacks @ PiratesPirates46¢50.5¢+4.5¢win

Live graded record · CLV = closing price minus our flagged entry

Watch the next one get flagged.

Every pick in this ledger started as a gap on the board. Get on it in real time.

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