NFLSun, Sep 13 · 5:00 PM

Falcons @ Steelers

Pricing the Steelers side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

62¢

Fair line

58.8¢

Edge

-3.2¢

Book by book

9 books · Steelers to win

DraftKings

60.9¢

Bovada

60.7¢

BetMGM

59.1¢

MyBookie.ag

58.8¢

BetOnline.ag

58.8¢

LowVig.ag

58.8¢

BetUS

58.7¢

BetRivers

58.2¢

FanDuel

57.1¢

Consensus

58.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

What an edge is worth

worked example · Steelers · Falcons @ Steelers

Kalshi asks 62¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 58.8¢. Pick a position size:

Position

403 contracts

If it hits / if it misses

+$147 / −$250

Expected value per trade

−$19

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Steelers is priced at 58.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 62¢ — a -3.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.