Benoit Saint-Denis @ Paddy Pimblett
Pricing the Benoit Saint-Denis side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
56¢
Fair line
58.0¢
Edge
+2.0¢
Book by book
5 books · Benoit Saint-Denis to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
What an edge is worth
worked example · Benoit Saint-Denis · Benoit Saint-Denis @ Paddy PimblettKalshi asks 56¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 58¢. Pick a position size:
Position
446 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$190 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$2
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Benoit Saint-Denis is priced at 58.0% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 56¢ — a +2.0¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.