MLBTue, Jul 7 · 1:41 AM

Diamondbacks @ Padres

Pricing the Padres side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

…

Kalshi ask

93¢

Fair line

50.4¢

Edge

-42.6¢

Book by book

10 books · Padres to win

BetMGM

51.1¢

BetOnline.ag

50.5¢

LowVig.ag

50.5¢

BetUS

50.5¢

DraftKings

50.4¢

MyBookie.ag

50.3¢

Fanatics

50.0¢

Caesars

50.0¢

BetRivers

50.0¢

FanDuel

49.6¢

Consensus

50.4¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

Edge unlocks the book breakdown

See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Padres · Diamondbacks @ Padres

Kalshi asks 93¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 50.4¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5751,693 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$93

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$747

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Padres is priced at 50.4% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 93¢, a -42.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.