Padres @ Royals
Pricing the Padres side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
57¢
Fair line
50.1¢
Edge
-6.9¢
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where the edge really is.
- ✓ Every book's devigged price, per game
- ✓ Custom edge alerts to your inbox
- ✓ Crossed markets, unmasked
Cancel anytime
What an edge is worth
worked example · Padres · Padres @ RoyalsKalshi asks 57¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 50.1¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$1,147
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$232
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Executable edge
What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.
+3.8¢
headline
+1.5¢
at size
57.3¢
avg fill
1.3¢
slippage
2,400
available
See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.
Unlock with Sharp · $99/moPadres is priced at 50.1% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 57¢, a -6.9¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.