MLBSun, Jul 5 · 7:01 PM

Phillies @ Royals

Pricing the Phillies side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

62¢

Fair line

56.1¢

Edge

-5.9¢

Book by book

11 books · Phillies to win

BetMGM

56.6¢

DraftKings

56.3¢

Bovada

56.2¢

BetOnline.ag

56.1¢

LowVig.ag

56.1¢

BetUS

56.1¢

MyBookie.ag

56.0¢

Caesars

56.0¢

Fanatics

55.6¢

FanDuel

55.5¢

BetRivers

55.4¢

Consensus

56.1¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Phillies · Phillies @ Royals

Kalshi asks 62¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 56.1¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,540 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$927

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$188

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Phillies is priced at 56.1% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 62¢, a -5.9¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.