MLBFri, Jul 17 · 5:36 PM

Rays @ Sox

Pricing the Rays side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

…

Kalshi ask

70¢

Fair line

47.6¢

Edge

-22.4¢

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Rays · Rays @ Sox

Kalshi asks 70¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 47.6¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,250 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$641

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$538

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Executable edge

What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.

+3.8¢

headline

+1.5¢

at size

57.3¢

avg fill

1.3¢

slippage

2,400

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Rays is priced at 47.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 70¢, a -22.4¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.