Yankees @ Red Sox
Pricing the Red Sox side — Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
42¢
Fair line
44.3¢
Edge
+2.3¢
What an edge is worth
worked example · Red Sox · Yankees @ Red SoxKalshi asks 42¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 44.3¢. Pick a position size:
Position
595 contracts
If it hits / if it misses
+$336 / −$250
Expected value per trade
+$5
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket — a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Red Sox is priced at 44.3% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 42¢ — a +2.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast — verify at the venue before trading.