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MLSFri, Jul 17 · 12:30 AM

City @ SC

Pricing the SC side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

68¢

Fair line

66.3¢

Edge

-1.7¢

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What an edge is worth

worked example · SC · City @ SC

Kalshi asks 68¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 66.3¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,316 contracts
$100$25k

If it hits

+$706

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$74

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Executable edge

What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.

+3.8¢

headline

+1.5¢

at size

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See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.

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SC is priced at 66.3% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 68¢, a -1.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.