Orlando City SC @ San Jose Earthquakes
Pricing the San Jose Earthquakes side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
65¢
Fair line
61.7¢
Edge
-3.3¢
Market volume
$2.1K
17,471 contracts at best ask
Volume is notional at settlement. Thin markets move on small orders, so size accordingly.
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What an edge is worth
worked example · San Jose Earthquakes · Orlando City SC @ San Jose EarthquakesKalshi asks 65¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 61.7¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$812
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$116
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Executable edge
What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.
+3.8¢
headline
+1.5¢
at size
57.3¢
avg fill
1.3¢
slippage
2,400
available
See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.
Unlock with Sharp · $99/moSan Jose Earthquakes is priced at 61.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 65¢, a -3.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.