Toronto FC @ D.C. United
Pricing the Toronto FC side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
25¢
Fair line
24.3¢
Edge
-0.7¢
Market volume
$14
326 contracts at best ask
Volume is notional at settlement. Thin markets move on small orders, so size accordingly.
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What an edge is worth
worked example · Toronto FC · Toronto FC @ D.C. UnitedKalshi asks 25¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 24.3¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$4,631
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$139
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Executable edge
What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.
+3.8¢
headline
+1.5¢
at size
57.3¢
avg fill
1.3¢
slippage
2,400
available
See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.
Unlock with Sharp · $99/moToronto FC is priced at 24.3% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 25¢, a -0.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.