Tennis (ATP)Sun, Jul 5 · 1:10 PM

Fokina @ Auger-Aliassime

Pricing the Fokina side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

37¢

Fair line

35.8¢

Edge

-1.2¢

Book by book

9 books · Fokina to win

BetUS

37.0¢

BetMGM

36.2¢

Bovada

36.1¢

MyBookie.ag

36.1¢

Fanatics

35.8¢

FanDuel

35.7¢

Caesars

35.4¢

DraftKings

35.3¢

BetRivers

34.8¢

Consensus

35.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Fokina · Fokina @ Auger-Aliassime

Kalshi asks 37¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 35.8¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5754,256 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$2,617

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$115

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Fokina is priced at 35.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 37¢, a -1.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.