Tennis (ATP)Sun, Jul 5 · 3:20 PM

Mochizuki @ Sinner

Pricing the Sinner side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

97¢

Fair line

94.3¢

Edge

-2.7¢

Book by book

7 books · Sinner to win

DraftKings

95.2¢

Bovada

94.7¢

Caesars

94.4¢

BetRivers

94.3¢

FanDuel

94.3¢

Fanatics

94.0¢

BetMGM

92.7¢

Consensus

94.3¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Sinner · Mochizuki @ Sinner

Kalshi asks 97¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 94.3¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5751,623 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$24

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$68

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Sinner is priced at 94.3% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 97¢, a -2.7¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.