Tennis (ATP)Sun, Jul 5 · 1:30 PM

Struff @ Hurkacz

Pricing the Struff side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

29¢

Fair line

27.8¢

Edge

-1.2¢

Book by book

9 books · Struff to win

BetRivers

29.5¢

BetUS

29.1¢

Bovada

28.2¢

DraftKings

28.0¢

BetMGM

27.8¢

Caesars

27.6¢

MyBookie.ag

27.5¢

Fanatics

27.5¢

FanDuel

26.7¢

Consensus

27.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Struff · Struff @ Hurkacz

Kalshi asks 29¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 27.8¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5755,431 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$3,775

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$147

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Struff is priced at 27.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 29¢, a -1.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.