Tennis (ATP)Tue, Jul 7 · 9:00 AM

Struff @ Sinner

Pricing the Struff side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

…

Kalshi ask

7¢

Fair line

7.6¢

Edge

+0.6¢

Book by book

6 books · Struff to win

Caesars

8.6¢

BetMGM

8.2¢

Fanatics

7.9¢

Bovada

7.3¢

DraftKings

7.0¢

FanDuel

6.9¢

Consensus

7.6¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

Edge unlocks the book breakdown

See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Struff · Struff @ Sinner

Kalshi asks 7¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 7.6¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,57522,499 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$20,587

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$202

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Struff is priced at 7.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 7¢, a +0.6¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.