Tennis (ATP)Mon, Jul 6 · 9:00 AM

Zverev @ Lehecka

Pricing the Zverev side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

75¢

Fair line

73.1¢

Edge

-1.9¢

Book by book

7 books · Zverev to win

FanDuel

74.2¢

DraftKings

73.4¢

Bovada

73.4¢

MyBookie.ag

73.1¢

Fanatics

73.0¢

BetMGM

72.2¢

BetRivers

71.8¢

Consensus

73.1¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Zverev · Zverev @ Lehecka

Kalshi asks 75¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 73.1¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,100 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$494

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$71

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Zverev is priced at 73.1% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 75¢, a -1.9¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.