Tennis (WTA)Mon, Jul 6 · 9:00 AM

Eala @ Paolini

Pricing the Paolini side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

41¢

Fair line

40.8¢

Edge

-0.2¢

Book by book

10 books · Paolini to win

MyBookie.ag

41.3¢

BetMGM

41.1¢

DraftKings

41.0¢

FanDuel

40.9¢

Fanatics

40.8¢

Caesars

40.8¢

Bovada

40.6¢

BetUS

40.6¢

BetOnline.ag

40.5¢

BetRivers

39.8¢

Consensus

40.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Paolini · Eala @ Paolini

Kalshi asks 41¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 40.8¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5753,841 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$2,209

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$65

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Paolini is priced at 40.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 41¢, a -0.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.