Tennis (WTA)Tue, Jul 7 · 9:00 AM

Gauff @ Pegula

Pricing the Pegula side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

…

Kalshi ask

57¢

Fair line

55.8¢

Edge

-1.2¢

Book by book

4 books · Pegula to win

FanDuel

56.1¢

Fanatics

56.0¢

Bovada

55.6¢

MyBookie.ag

55.6¢

Consensus

55.8¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

Edge unlocks the book breakdown

See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Pegula · Gauff @ Pegula

Kalshi asks 57¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 55.8¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,763 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$1,147

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$75

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Pegula is priced at 55.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 57¢, a -1.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.