Tennis (WTA)Sun, Jul 5 · 11:30 AM

Krejcikova @ Muchova

Pricing the Muchova side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.

Kalshi ask

62¢

Fair line

61.0¢

Edge

-1.0¢

Book by book

10 books · Muchova to win

Bovada

61.6¢

BetUS

61.6¢

DraftKings

61.4¢

FanDuel

61.2¢

MyBookie.ag

61.0¢

Fanatics

60.9¢

Caesars

60.2¢

BetOnline.ag

59.9¢

BetMGM

59.9¢

BetRivers

59.5¢

Consensus

61.0¢

Each bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line

Book by book

DraftKings

FanDuel

BetMGM

Caesars

ESPN Bet

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See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.

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What an edge is worth

worked example · Muchova · Krejcikova @ Muchova

Kalshi asks 62¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 61¢. Drag to size your position:

$1,5752,540 contracts

$100$25k

If it hits

+$927

If it misses

−$1,575

Expected value

−$64

That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.

Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice

Muchova is priced at 61.0% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 62¢, a -1.0¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.