Mertens @ Bouzkova
Pricing the Mertens side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
53¢
Fair line
53.1¢
Edge
+0.1¢
Book by book
10 books · Mertens to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.
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worked example · Mertens · Mertens @ BouzkovaKalshi asks 53¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 53.1¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$1,352
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$42
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Mertens is priced at 53.1% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 53¢, a +0.1¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.