Noskova @ Keys
Pricing the Noskova side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
42¢
Fair line
41.8¢
Edge
-0.2¢
Book by book
7 books · Noskova to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.
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worked example · Noskova · Noskova @ KeysKalshi asks 42¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 41.8¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$2,119
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$64
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Noskova is priced at 41.8% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 42¢, a -0.2¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.