Megan Anderson @ Ezra Elliott
Pricing the Ezra Elliott side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
45¢
Fair line
43.6¢
Edge
-1.4¢
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where the edge really is.
- ✓ Every book's devigged price, per game
- ✓ Custom edge alerts to your inbox
- ✓ Crossed markets, unmasked
Cancel anytime
What an edge is worth
worked example · Ezra Elliott · Megan Anderson @ Ezra ElliottKalshi asks 45¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 43.6¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$1,873
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$101
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Executable edge
What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.
+3.8¢
headline
+1.5¢
at size
57.3¢
avg fill
1.3¢
slippage
2,400
available
See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.
Unlock with Sharp · $99/moEzra Elliott is priced at 43.6% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 45¢, a -1.4¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.