Tyrell Fortune @ Rizvan Kuniev
Pricing the Rizvan Kuniev side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
72¢
Fair line
71.5¢
Edge
-0.5¢
Market volume
$5.9K
5,637 contracts at best ask
Volume is notional at settlement. Thin markets move on small orders, so size accordingly.
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where the edge really is.
- ✓ Every book's devigged price, per game
- ✓ Custom edge alerts to your inbox
- ✓ Crossed markets, unmasked
Cancel anytime
What an edge is worth
worked example · Rizvan Kuniev · Tyrell Fortune @ Rizvan KunievKalshi asks 72¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 71.5¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$580
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$44
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Executable edge
What this is actually worth once you account for order-book depth.
+3.8¢
headline
+1.5¢
at size
57.3¢
avg fill
1.3¢
slippage
2,400
available
See what any edge is really worth at size, net of order-book depth. Size your position, see your true fill.
Unlock with Sharp · $99/moRizvan Kuniev is priced at 71.5% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 72¢, a -0.5¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.