Colombia @ Switzerland
Pricing the Switzerland side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
27¢
Fair line
27.0¢
Edge
+0.0¢
Book by book
9 books · Switzerland to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.
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worked example · Switzerland · Colombia @ SwitzerlandKalshi asks 27¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 27¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$4,171
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$87
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Switzerland is priced at 27.0% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 27¢, a +0.0¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.