England @ Norway
Pricing the Norway side, Kalshi contract vs. the devigged sportsbook consensus.
Kalshi ask
24¢
Fair line
23.7¢
Edge
-0.3¢
Book by book
9 books · Norway to winEach bar = that book's price with the vig removed · median across books = the fair line
Book by book
See exactly which sportsbook sets each price, so you know where to act.
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worked example · Norway · England @ NorwayKalshi asks 24¢ for a contract the devigged consensus prices at 23.7¢. Drag to size your position:
If it hits
+$4,889
If it misses
−$1,575
Expected value
−$118
That's the honest shape of edge trading: no single bet is a lottery ticket, a repeatable few-percent advantage, compounded over volume, is the entire game. The terminal's job is finding you that advantage before it closes.
Expected value ≠ guaranteed outcome · fees approximated · variance is real · not betting advice
Norway is priced at 23.7% to win by the devigged consensus, while the Kalshi YES contract asks 24¢, a -0.3¢ gap per contract before fees. Prices move fast, verify at the venue before trading.